Stade Plabennec 1–0 Cholet: Result & Stats

Stade Plabennec

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cholet

N. Pellen 48'

10/29/2022

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Kervéguen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stade Plabennec33%

×Draw30%

Cholet37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade PlabennecExpected goals in this matchCholet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.10

Stade Plabennec

1.01

Cholet

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.83

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Stade Plabennec

0.83

Cholet

1.20

allows per match

Stade Plabennec

1.00

Cholet

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par

Cholet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Plabennec ↓

Cholet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stade Plabennec or draw

63%

Stade Plabennec or Cholet

70%

Draw or Cholet

67%

Winning margin

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+

12%

Cholet wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals

64%

Stade Plabennec 2+ goals

27%

Stade Plabennec 3+ goals

8%

Cholet 1+ goals

67%

Cholet 2+ goals

30%

Cholet 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)

47%

Cholet (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Plabennec at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Cholet away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Plabennec attack 0.83 + Cholet defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Cholet attack 1.20 + Stade Plabennec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stade Plabennec scores more

33%

level

30%

Cholet scores more

37%

Cholet at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cholet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

N. Pellen

59'

G. Missi Mezu← S. Guibert

59'

M. Expérience← A. Thiam

66'

M. Ouattara← A. Gameiro

70'

N. Madec← Y. Kujabi

76'

A. Uguen← N. Pellen

85'

M. Abily← D. Elin

Stade

Cholet

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pellen

Mourdi

Guegan

Manager: B. Maligorne

70'▲N. Madec←▼Y. Kujabi

76'▲A. Uguen←▼N. Pellen

85'▲M. Abily←▼D. Elin

Stade Plabennec substitutes

MadecUguenAbilyFontaineDugandMichalCorbé

Manager: S. Rossi

59'▲G. Missi Mezu←▼S. Guibert

59'▲M. Expérience←▼A. Thiam

66'▲M. Ouattara←▼A. Gameiro

Cholet substitutes

MezuExpérienceOuattaraDiopRimaneGassamaRabouille