Stade Plabennec 1–1 Challans: Result & Stats

Stade Plabennec

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Challans

M. Koné 40' (OG)

A. Dupa 22'

11/18/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Kervéguen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stade Plabennec33%

×Draw29%

Challans38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade PlabennecExpected goals in this matchChallans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.13

Stade Plabennec

1.04

Challans

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

0.83

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Stade Plabennec

0.83

Challans

1.25

allows per match

Stade Plabennec

1.00

Challans

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par

Challans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Plabennec ↓

Challans →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Plabennec or draw

62%

Stade Plabennec or Challans

71%

Draw or Challans

67%

Winning margin

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+

13%

Challans wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals

65%

Stade Plabennec 2+ goals

28%

Stade Plabennec 3+ goals

Challans 1+ goals

68%

Challans 2+ goals

31%

Challans 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)

47%

Challans (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stade Plabennec at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Challans away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stade Plabennec attack 0.83 + Challans defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Challans attack 1.25 + Stade Plabennec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade Plabennec scores more

33%

level

29%

Challans scores more

38%

Challans at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Challans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Dupa

40'

M. KonéOwn goal

55'

A. Lengrand← N. Madec

66'

A. Heraud← J. Montalbetti

75'

K. Faye← A. Dupa

75'

T. Férand← A. Merceron

77'

S. Bourhis← N. Maudire

89'

E. Fernandes← A. Laurent

Stade

Challans

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Cloarec

55'▲A. Lengrand←▼N. Madec

77'▲S. Bourhis←▼N. Maudire

89'▲E. Fernandes←▼A. Laurent

Stade Plabennec substitutes

LengrandBourhisFernandesRivoalenGoffSoumahHabasque

Manager: N. Lemetayer

66'▲A. Heraud←▼J. Montalbetti

75'▲K. Faye←▼A. Dupa

75'▲T. Férand←▼A. Merceron

Challans substitutes

HeraudFayeFérandRobinFarssaneJosuéChoubani