Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Chiasso: Result & Stats

Stade Nyonnais

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Chiasso

T. Escorza 83'

C. Gomis 18'

D. Bezziccheri 24'

10/1/2022

1. Liga Promotion · Round 9Centre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stade Nyonnais43%

×Draw23%

FC Chiasso34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade NyonnaisExpected goals in this matchFC Chiasso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.53

Stade Nyonnais

1.75

FC Chiasso

1.53

Stade Nyonnais creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

2.31

creates per match

1.65

1.41

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Stade Nyonnais

2.31

FC Chiasso

1.65

allows per match

Stade Nyonnais

1.41

FC Chiasso

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Nyonnais+0.00on par

FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Nyonnais ↓

FC Chiasso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stade Nyonnais or draw

66%

Stade Nyonnais or FC Chiasso

77%

Draw or FC Chiasso

57%

Winning margin

Stade Nyonnais wins by 2+

23%

FC Chiasso wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stade Nyonnais 1+ goals

83%

Stade Nyonnais 2+ goals

52%

Stade Nyonnais 3+ goals

25%

FC Chiasso 1+ goals

78%

FC Chiasso 2+ goals

45%

FC Chiasso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stade Nyonnais (draw refunded)

56%

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Nyonnais at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Nyonnais attack 2.31 + FC Chiasso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Chiasso attack 1.65 + Stade Nyonnais defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stade Nyonnais scores more

43%

level

23%

FC Chiasso scores more

34%

Stade Nyonnais at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stade Nyonnais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

C. Gomis

19'

C. Anelli

24'

D. Bezziccheri

26'

P. A. De

34'

C. Gomis

38'

D. Bezziccheri

48'

R. Nivokazi

65'

D. Moussa← K. Hadji

76'

N. Kame

78'

M. Perissinotto← M. Perissinotto

83'

T. Escorza

85'

M. Ortolani← M. Ortolani

87'

N. Pedat← N. Pedat

90+1'

C. Guedes

90+1'

C. Anelli

90+1'

C. Anelli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff