Stade Migoveen 1–0 Vautour Club: Result & Stats

Stade Migoveen

FT

1 – 0

Vautour Club

5/2/2026

Championnat D1 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stade Migoveen33%

×Draw29%

Vautour Club38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade MigoveenExpected goals in this matchVautour Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.14

Stade Migoveen

1.03

Vautour Club

1.14

Vautour Club creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

0.85

creates per match

1.36

0.92

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Stade Migoveen

0.85

Vautour Club

1.36

allows per match

Stade Migoveen

0.92

Vautour Club

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Migoveen+0.00on par

Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Migoveen ↓

Vautour Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Migoveen or draw

62%

Stade Migoveen or Vautour Club

71%

Draw or Vautour Club

67%

Winning margin

Stade Migoveen wins by 2+

12%

Vautour Club wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stade Migoveen 1+ goals

64%

Stade Migoveen 2+ goals

28%

Stade Migoveen 3+ goals

9%

Vautour Club 1+ goals

68%

Vautour Club 2+ goals

32%

Vautour Club 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stade Migoveen (draw refunded)

46%

Vautour Club (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Migoveen at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Migoveen attack 0.85 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + Stade Migoveen defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade Migoveen scores more

33%

level

29%

Vautour Club scores more

38%

Vautour Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff