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Stade Marocain vs Racing de Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
11/23/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Stade Marocain46%
×Draw27%
Racing de Casablanca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.39
Racing de Casablanca
0.99

Stade Marocain creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 120 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
Racing de Casablanca
1.01

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
Racing de Casablanca
1.27

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
73%
Stade Marocain or Racing de Casablanca
73%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
54%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
22%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
75%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
40%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
16%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
63%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
26%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
63%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
46%
level
27%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
27%

Stade Marocain at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Marocain vs Racing de Casablanca

Stade Marocain and Racing de Casablanca drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on November 23, 2025.