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Stade Marocain vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
1 – 2
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
Unknown 49'
Unknown 90+4', 46'
2/6/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Stade Marocain47%
×Draw27%
KAC Kenitra26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.39
KAC Kenitra
0.96

Stade Marocain creates 45% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 73 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
74%
Stade Marocain or KAC Kenitra
73%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
53%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
22%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
75%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
40%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
16%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
62%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
25%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
64%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
47%
level
27%
KAC Kenitra scores more
26%

Stade Marocain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
49'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Marocain vs KAC Kenitra

KAC Kenitra beat Stade Marocain 2-1 in Botola 2 on February 6, 2021.

Goals: ? (46', 49', 90+4').

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Achhoud in Rabat.