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KAC Kenitra vs Stade Marocain — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
2 – 0
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
H. Zraibi 31', 18'
5/30/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra44%
×Draw29%
Stade Marocain27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.23
Stade Marocain
0.91

KAC Kenitra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 90 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
Stade Marocain
0.81

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Stade Marocain
1.20

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
73%
KAC Kenitra or Stade Marocain
71%
Draw or Stade Marocain
56%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
19%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
71%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
35%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
13%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
60%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
23%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
61%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
44%
level
29%
Stade Marocain scores more
27%

KAC Kenitra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
H. Zraibi
31'
H. Zraibi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 2–0 Stade Marocain

KAC Kenitra beat Stade Marocain 2-0 in Botola 2 on May 30, 2021.

Goals: H. Zraibi (18', 31').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.