Stade Marocain 1–1 Ittihad Khemisset

Stade Marocain

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ittihad Khemisset

10/8/2022

Botola 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal Mansouria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Stade Marocain46%

×Draw27%

Ittihad Khemisset27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade MarocainExpected goals in this matchIttihad Khemisset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Stade Marocain

1.39

Ittihad Khemisset

1.00

Stade Marocain creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.51

creates per match

1.03

0.98

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Stade Marocain

1.51

Ittihad Khemisset

1.03

allows per match

Stade Marocain

0.98

Ittihad Khemisset

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw

73%

Stade Marocain or Ittihad Khemisset

73%

Draw or Ittihad Khemisset

54%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+

22%

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals

75%

Stade Marocain 2+ goals

40%

Stade Marocain 3+ goals

16%

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

63%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

26%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)

63%

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Marocain scores more

46%

level

27%

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

27%

Stade Marocain at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff