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Stade Marocain vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
2/17/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stade Marocain40%
×Draw31%
Difaa EL Jadida29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.09
Difaa EL Jadida
0.89

Stade Marocain creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
Difaa EL Jadida
0.80

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
Difaa EL Jadida
0.67

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
71%
Stade Marocain or Difaa EL Jadida
69%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
60%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
16%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
66%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
30%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
10%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
59%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
22%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
58%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.09

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
40%
level
31%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
29%

Stade Marocain at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Stade Marocain 0–0 Difaa EL Jadida

Stade Marocain and Difaa EL Jadida drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Achhoud in Rabat.