Stade Marocain 3–2 AS Salé: Result & Stats

Stade Marocain

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

AS Salé

9/2/2023

Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Ahmed Achhoud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Stade Marocain50%

×Draw26%

AS Salé24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade MarocainExpected goals in this matchAS Salé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Stade Marocain

1.50

AS Salé

0.95

Stade Marocain creates 58% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

1.51

creates per match

0.92

0.98

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Stade Marocain

1.51

AS Salé

0.92

allows per match

Stade Marocain

0.98

AS Salé

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par

AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

AS Salé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw

76%

Stade Marocain or AS Salé

74%

Draw or AS Salé

50%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+

25%

AS Salé wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals

78%

Stade Marocain 2+ goals

44%

Stade Marocain 3+ goals

19%

AS Salé 1+ goals

61%

AS Salé 2+ goals

25%

AS Salé 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)

68%

AS Salé (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

AS Salé attack 0.92 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade Marocain scores more

50%

level

26%

AS Salé scores more

24%

Stade Marocain at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff