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Stade Mandji vs Mounana — Championnat D1 2022

Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mounana
Mounana
5/5/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 22Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stade Mandji51%
×Draw27%
Mounana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Mandji
1.42
Mounana
0.83

Stade Mandji creates 71% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stade Mandji
1.73
Mounana
1.05

allows per match

Stade Mandji
0.61
Mounana
1.11

finishing

Stade Mandji+0.00on par
Mounana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Mandji ↓

Mounana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade Mandji or draw
78%
Stade Mandji or Mounana
73%
Draw or Mounana
49%

Winning margin

Stade Mandji wins by 2+
25%
Mounana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Mandji 1+ goals
76%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
41%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
17%
Mounana 1+ goals
56%
Mounana 2+ goals
20%
Mounana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
70%
Mounana (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Mandji at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Mounana away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Mandji attack 1.73 + Mounana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mounana attack 1.05 + Stade Mandji defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stade Mandji scores more
51%
level
27%
Mounana scores more
22%

Stade Mandji at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Mandji vs Mounana

Stade Mandji and Mounana drew 2-2 in Championnat D1 on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy in Port-Gentil.