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Stade Mandji vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
Preview
14:30
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
10/10/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 1
Big match
42%
Stade Mandji
model favours
42%29%29%

77% of Cercle Mbéri’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stade Mandji42%
×Draw29%
Cercle Mbéri29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Mandji
1.21
Cercle Mbéri
0.96

Stade Mandji creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stade Mandji
1.73
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

Stade Mandji
0.61
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

Stade Mandji+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Mandji ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Mandji or draw
71%
Stade Mandji or Cercle Mbéri
71%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
58%

Winning margin

Stade Mandji wins by 2+
18%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stade Mandji 1+ goals
70%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
34%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
12%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
62%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
25%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
59%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Mandji at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Mandji attack 1.73 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Stade Mandji defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stade Mandji scores more
42%
level
29%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
29%

Stade Mandji at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stade Mandji win just 32% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mandji
LLWL
Mbéri
DWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stade Mandji face Cercle Mbéri (Championnat D1)

Championnat D1 returns with Stade Mandji hosting Cercle Mbéri. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.