Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cercle Mbéri vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
5/23/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cercle Mbéri37%
×Draw33%
Stade Mandji29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Mbéri
0.95
Stade Mandji
0.80

Cercle Mbéri creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cercle Mbéri
1.06
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

Cercle Mbéri
0.67
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Mbéri ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cercle Mbéri or draw
71%
Cercle Mbéri or Stade Mandji
67%
Draw or Stade Mandji
63%

Winning margin

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
14%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
61%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
25%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
7%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
55%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
19%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
56%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Mbéri at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.06 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cercle Mbéri scores more
37%
level
33%
Stade Mandji scores more
29%

Cercle Mbéri at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Cercle Mbéri 0–1 Stade Mandji

Stade Mandji beat Cercle Mbéri 1-0 in Championnat D1 on May 23, 2026.