Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stade Malien Bamako vs Onze Créateurs — Première Division 2019

Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Onze Créateurs
Onze Créateurs
1/4/2026Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako42%
×Draw32%
Onze Créateurs25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Malien Bamako
1.05
Onze Créateurs
0.73

Stade Malien Bamako creates 44% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako
1.24
Onze Créateurs
0.96

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako
0.51
Onze Créateurs
0.86

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par
Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Onze Créateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw
75%
Stade Malien Bamako or Onze Créateurs
68%
Draw or Onze Créateurs
58%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
17%
Onze Créateurs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
65%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
28%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
9%
Onze Créateurs 1+ goals
52%
Onze Créateurs 2+ goals
17%
Onze Créateurs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
63%
Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.51 · 97 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.24 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more
42%
level
32%
Onze Créateurs scores more
25%

Stade Malien Bamako at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Stade Malien Bamako 1–0 Onze Créateurs

Stade Malien Bamako beat Onze Créateurs 1-0 in Première Division on January 4, 2026.