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Stade Malien Bamako vs Nouadhibou — CAF Champions League 2019

Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
10/26/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako65%
×Draw25%
Nouadhibou10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Malien Bamako
1.53
Nouadhibou
0.42

Stade Malien Bamako creates 264% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako
1.64
Nouadhibou
0.57

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako
0.27
Nouadhibou
1.43

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par
Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Nouadhibou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw
90%
Stade Malien Bamako or Nouadhibou
75%
Draw or Nouadhibou
35%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
36%
Nouadhibou wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
78%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
45%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
20%
Nouadhibou 1+ goals
34%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
7%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
87%
Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.64 + Nouadhibou defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nouadhibou attack 0.57 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more
65%
level
25%
Nouadhibou scores more
10%

Stade Malien Bamako at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Malien Bamako vs Nouadhibou

Stade Malien Bamako beat Nouadhibou 2-0 in CAF Champions League on October 26, 2025.