Stade Malien Bamako 1–0 ES Tunis: Result & Stats

Stade Malien Bamako

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ES Tunis

2/8/2026

CAF Champions League · Round 5Stade du 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako51%

×Draw30%

ES Tunis19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Malien BamakoExpected goals in this matchES Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.65

Stade Malien Bamako

1.27

ES Tunis

0.65

Stade Malien Bamako creates 95% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

1.64

creates per match

1.02

0.27

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako

1.64

ES Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako

0.27

ES Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

ES Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw

81%

Stade Malien Bamako or ES Tunis

70%

Draw or ES Tunis

49%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+

24%

ES Tunis wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals

72%

Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals

36%

Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals

14%

ES Tunis 1+ goals

48%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

14%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)

73%

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.64 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more

51%

level

30%

ES Tunis scores more

19%

Stade Malien Bamako at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff