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Stade Malien Bamako vs Douannes de Sikasso — Première Division 2019

Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
FT
2 – 0
Douannes de Sikasso
Douannes de Sikasso
4/11/2021Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 10Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stade Malien Bamako58%
×Draw27%
Douannes de Sikasso14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Malien Bamako
1.40
Douannes de Sikasso
0.54

Stade Malien Bamako creates 159% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 26 away

creates per match

Stade Malien Bamako
1.26
Douannes de Sikasso
0.58

allows per match

Stade Malien Bamako
0.51
Douannes de Sikasso
1.54

finishing

Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par
Douannes de Sikasso+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Malien Bamako ↓

Douannes de Sikasso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Malien Bamako or draw
86%
Stade Malien Bamako or Douannes de Sikasso
73%
Draw or Douannes de Sikasso
42%

Winning margin

Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
29%
Douannes de Sikasso wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
75%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
41%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
17%
Douannes de Sikasso 1+ goals
42%
Douannes de Sikasso 2+ goals
10%
Douannes de Sikasso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
80%
Douannes de Sikasso (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Malien Bamako at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.51 · 99 matches

Douannes de Sikasso away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.26 + Douannes de Sikasso defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Douannes de Sikasso attack 0.58 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stade Malien Bamako scores more
58%
level
27%
Douannes de Sikasso scores more
14%

Stade Malien Bamako at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Stade Malien Bamako 2–0 Douannes de Sikasso

Stade Malien Bamako beat Douannes de Sikasso 2-0 in Première Division on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.