Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–1 Lausanne: Result & Stats

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lausanne

2/10/2024

Super League · Round 23Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy34%

×Draw24%

Lausanne41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Lausanne-OuchyExpected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.60

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.44

Lausanne

1.60

Lausanne creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 92 away

1.15

creates per match

1.09

2.10

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1.15

Lausanne

1.09

allows per match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

2.10

Lausanne

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy+0.00on par

Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw

59%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or Lausanne

76%

Draw or Lausanne

66%

Winning margin

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins by 2+

16%

Lausanne wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1+ goals

76%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2+ goals

42%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3+ goals

18%

Lausanne 1+ goals

80%

Lausanne 2+ goals

47%

Lausanne 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw refunded)

45%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 1.15 + Lausanne defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lausanne attack 1.09 + Stade Lausanne-Ouchy defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scores more

34%

level

24%

Lausanne scores more

41%

Lausanne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff