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Stade Gabesien vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
1 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
11/21/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Stade Gabesien53%
×Draw30%
Sporting Ben Arous17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.25
Sporting Ben Arous
0.58

Stade Gabesien creates 116% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
1.23
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.62
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
83%
Stade Gabesien or Sporting Ben Arous
70%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
47%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
25%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
71%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
36%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
13%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
44%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
12%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
75%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
53%
level
30%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
17%

Stade Gabesien at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Stade Gabesien 1–0 Sporting Ben Arous

Stade Gabesien beat Sporting Ben Arous 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.