Stade Gabesien 1–0 Redeyef: Result & Stats

Stade Gabesien

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Redeyef

A. Khaoui 55'

12/29/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stade Gabesien60%

×Draw26%

Redeyef14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchRedeyef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.56

Stade Gabesien

1.50

Redeyef

0.56

Stade Gabesien creates 168% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 26 away

1.23

creates per match

0.50

0.62

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

1.23

Redeyef

0.50

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

0.62

Redeyef

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Redeyef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Redeyef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

86%

Stade Gabesien or Redeyef

74%

Draw or Redeyef

40%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

32%

Redeyef wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

78%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

44%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

19%

Redeyef 1+ goals

43%

Redeyef 2+ goals

11%

Redeyef 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

81%

Redeyef (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Redeyef away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Redeyef defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Redeyef attack 0.50 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

60%

level

26%

Redeyef scores more

14%

Stade Gabesien at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

A. Khaoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff