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Stade Gabesien vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
W. Jerbi 61' (pen)
A. Kouraichi 47'
2/15/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stade Gabesien46%
×Draw31%
Jendouba Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.17
Jendouba Sport
0.74

Stade Gabesien creates 58% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
1.23
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.62
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
77%
Stade Gabesien or Jendouba Sport
69%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
54%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
20%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
69%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
33%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
11%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
52%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
17%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
66%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
46%
level
31%
Jendouba Sport scores more
23%

Stade Gabesien at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
A. Kouraichi
55'
A. Lamjed
61'
W. JerbiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Gabesien vs Jendouba Sport

Stade Gabesien beat Jendouba Sport 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 15, 2026.

Goals: A. Kouraichi (47'), W. Jerbi (61' pen).