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Stade Gabesien vs CS Tabarka — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CS Tabarka
CS Tabarka
B. Hemidi 86'
A. Mida 62'
A. Waili 22'
O. Zarglayoune 73'
B. Lahdhiri 59'
3/5/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stade Gabesien51%
×Draw29%
CS Tabarka19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Gabesien
1.29
CS Tabarka
0.67

Stade Gabesien creates 93% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stade Gabesien
1.23
CS Tabarka
0.71

allows per match

Stade Gabesien
0.62
CS Tabarka
1.35

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par
CS Tabarka+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

CS Tabarka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw
81%
Stade Gabesien or CS Tabarka
71%
Draw or CS Tabarka
49%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
24%
CS Tabarka wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
72%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
37%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
14%
CS Tabarka 1+ goals
49%
CS Tabarka 2+ goals
15%
CS Tabarka 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
73%
CS Tabarka (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

CS Tabarka away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + CS Tabarka defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

CS Tabarka attack 0.71 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more
51%
level
29%
CS Tabarka scores more
19%

Stade Gabesien at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Waili
59'
B. Lahdhiri
62'
A. Mida
73'
O. Zarglayoune
86'
B. Hemidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Gabesien vs CS Tabarka

Stade Gabesien beat CS Tabarka 3-2 in Ligue 2 on March 5, 2022.

Goals: A. Waili (22'), B. Lahdhiri (59'), A. Mida (62'), O. Zarglayoune (73'), B. Hemidi (86').

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.