Stade Gabesien 1–0 AS Gabes: Result & Stats

Stade Gabesien

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AS Gabes

11/19/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Stade Gabesien48%

×Draw29%

AS Gabes23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchAS Gabes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.76

Stade Gabesien

1.25

AS Gabes

0.76

Stade Gabesien creates 64% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 36 away

1.23

creates per match

0.89

0.62

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

1.23

AS Gabes

0.89

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

0.62

AS Gabes

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

AS Gabes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

77%

Stade Gabesien or AS Gabes

71%

Draw or AS Gabes

52%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

22%

AS Gabes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

71%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

36%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

13%

AS Gabes 1+ goals

53%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

18%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

68%

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

48%

level

29%

AS Gabes scores more

23%

Stade Gabesien at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff