Stade Gabesien 2–1 Ariana: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Stade Gabesien

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ariana

W. Jerbi 45', 37'

H. Zoghlami 90'

11/12/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Stade Gabesien54%

×Draw27%

Ariana19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade GabesienExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.76

Stade Gabesien

1.47

Ariana

0.76

Stade Gabesien creates 93% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 38 away

1.23

creates per match

0.89

0.62

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Stade Gabesien

1.23

Ariana

0.89

allows per match

Stade Gabesien

0.62

Ariana

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Gabesien ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stade Gabesien or draw

81%

Stade Gabesien or Ariana

73%

Draw or Ariana

46%

Winning margin

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

28%

Ariana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

77%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

43%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

18%

Ariana 1+ goals

53%

Ariana 2+ goals

18%

Ariana 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

74%

Ariana (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Gabesien at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.62 · 60 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Gabesien attack 1.23 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ariana attack 0.89 + Stade Gabesien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Gabesien scores more

54%

level

27%

Ariana scores more

19%

Stade Gabesien at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Gabesien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

W. Jerbi

45'

W. Jerbi

90'

H. Zoghlami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff