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Stade de Mbour vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
FT
1 – 0
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
2/14/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Complexe Sportif Bruno Metsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stade de Mbour42%
×Draw35%
Mbour Petite Côte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Mbour
0.96
Mbour Petite Côte
0.63

Stade de Mbour creates 52% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stade de Mbour
0.62
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

Stade de Mbour
0.77
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw
77%
Stade de Mbour or Mbour Petite Côte
65%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
58%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
16%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
62%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
25%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
7%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
47%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
13%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
64%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more
42%
level
35%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
23%

Stade de Mbour at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade de Mbour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Stade de Mbour 1–0 Mbour Petite Côte

Stade de Mbour beat Mbour Petite Côte 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Bruno Metsu in Mbour.