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Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye — Ligue 1 2019

Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guédiawaye
Guédiawaye
11/26/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Caroline Faye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Stade de Mbour29%
×Draw34%
Guédiawaye36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Mbour
0.77
Guédiawaye
0.89

Guédiawaye creates 16% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 69 away

creates per match

Stade de Mbour
0.62
Guédiawaye
1.01

allows per match

Stade de Mbour
0.77
Guédiawaye
0.91

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par
Guédiawaye+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

Guédiawaye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw
64%
Stade de Mbour or Guédiawaye
66%
Draw or Guédiawaye
71%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
9%
Guédiawaye wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
54%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
18%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
4%
Guédiawaye 1+ goals
59%
Guédiawaye 2+ goals
22%
Guédiawaye 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
45%
Guédiawaye (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

Guédiawaye away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + Guédiawaye defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Guédiawaye attack 1.01 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more
29%
level
34%
Guédiawaye scores more
36%

Guédiawaye at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guédiawaye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye

Stade de Mbour and Guédiawaye drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Caroline Faye in Mbour.