Stade de Mbour 1–1 CNEPS Excellence: Result & Stats

Stade de Mbour

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CNEPS Excellence

4/10/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Caroline Faye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stade de Mbour44%

×Draw33%

CNEPS Excellence23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade de MbourExpected goals in this matchCNEPS Excellence

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.67

Stade de Mbour

1.05

CNEPS Excellence

0.67

Stade de Mbour creates 57% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

0.62

creates per match

0.56

0.77

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Stade de Mbour

0.62

CNEPS Excellence

0.56

allows per match

Stade de Mbour

0.77

CNEPS Excellence

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

CNEPS Excellence →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw

77%

Stade de Mbour or CNEPS Excellence

67%

Draw or CNEPS Excellence

56%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+

18%

CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals

65%

Stade de Mbour 2+ goals

28%

Stade de Mbour 3+ goals

9%

CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals

49%

CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals

15%

CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)

66%

CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.05

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more

44%

level

33%

CNEPS Excellence scores more

23%

Stade de Mbour at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stade de Mbour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff