Stade de Mbour 1–2 Casa Sport: Result & Stats

Stade de Mbour

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Casa Sport

1/7/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Caroline Faye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Stade de Mbour33%

×Draw35%

Casa Sport32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade de MbourExpected goals in this matchCasa Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.79

Stade de Mbour

0.80

Casa Sport

0.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 88 away

0.62

creates per match

0.81

0.77

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Stade de Mbour

0.62

Casa Sport

0.81

allows per match

Stade de Mbour

0.77

Casa Sport

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

Casa Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

Casa Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–116%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw

68%

Stade de Mbour or Casa Sport

65%

Draw or Casa Sport

67%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+

11%

Casa Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals

55%

Stade de Mbour 2+ goals

19%

Stade de Mbour 3+ goals

5%

Casa Sport 1+ goals

55%

Casa Sport 2+ goals

19%

Casa Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)

50%

Casa Sport (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

Casa Sport away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + Casa Sport defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.80

Casa Sport attack 0.81 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more

33%

level

35%

Casa Sport scores more

32%

Stade de Mbour at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Stade de Mbour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff