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Stade de Mbour vs ASEC Ndiambour — Ligue 1 2019

Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
FT
0 – 1
ASEC Ndiambour
ASEC Ndiambour
7/14/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Massène Sène

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Stade de Mbour44%
×Draw35%
ASEC Ndiambour22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Mbour
0.98
ASEC Ndiambour
0.60

Stade de Mbour creates 63% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 32 away

creates per match

Stade de Mbour
0.62
ASEC Ndiambour
0.44

allows per match

Stade de Mbour
0.77
ASEC Ndiambour
1.34

finishing

Stade de Mbour+0.00on par
ASEC Ndiambour+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Mbour ↓

ASEC Ndiambour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Stade de Mbour or draw
78%
Stade de Mbour or ASEC Ndiambour
65%
Draw or ASEC Ndiambour
56%

Winning margin

Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
17%
ASEC Ndiambour wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
62%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
26%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
8%
ASEC Ndiambour 1+ goals
45%
ASEC Ndiambour 2+ goals
12%
ASEC Ndiambour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
67%
ASEC Ndiambour (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Mbour at home — creates 0.62, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

ASEC Ndiambour away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Mbour attack 0.62 + ASEC Ndiambour defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.98

ASEC Ndiambour attack 0.44 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stade de Mbour scores more
44%
level
35%
ASEC Ndiambour scores more
22%

Stade de Mbour at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stade de Mbour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade de Mbour vs ASEC Ndiambour

ASEC Ndiambour beat Stade de Mbour 1-0 in Ligue 1 on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Massène Sène in Fatick.