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Stade de Bertoua vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
FT
1 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
7/14/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stade de Bertoua45%
×Draw28%
Unisport Bafang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Bertoua
1.34
Unisport Bafang
0.97

Stade de Bertoua creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stade de Bertoua
1.63
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Stade de Bertoua
0.89
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Bertoua ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade de Bertoua or draw
73%
Stade de Bertoua or Unisport Bafang
72%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
55%

Winning margin

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
21%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
74%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
39%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
15%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
62%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
25%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
63%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Bertoua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Bertoua attack 1.63 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Stade de Bertoua defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stade de Bertoua scores more
45%
level
28%
Unisport Bafang scores more
27%

Stade de Bertoua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Stade de Bertoua 1–0 Unisport Bafang

Stade de Bertoua beat Unisport Bafang 1-0 in Elite Two on July 14, 2021.