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Stade de Bertoua vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
4/5/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stade de Bertoua50%
×Draw26%
Tonnerre24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Bertoua
1.50
Tonnerre
0.96

Stade de Bertoua creates 56% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stade de Bertoua
1.63
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

Stade de Bertoua
0.89
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Bertoua ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stade de Bertoua or draw
76%
Stade de Bertoua or Tonnerre
74%
Draw or Tonnerre
50%

Winning margin

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
25%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
78%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
44%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
19%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
62%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
25%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
67%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Bertoua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Bertoua attack 1.63 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Stade de Bertoua defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade de Bertoua scores more
50%
level
26%
Tonnerre scores more
24%

Stade de Bertoua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Stade de Bertoua 5–0 Tonnerre

Stade de Bertoua beat Tonnerre 5-0 in Elite Two on April 5, 2023.