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Stade de Bertoua vs Ngaoundéré — Elite Two 2020

Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
CANC
00:00
Ngaoundéré
Ngaoundéré
6/7/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade de Bertoua50%
×Draw24%
Ngaoundéré27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade de Bertoua
1.73
Ngaoundéré
1.20

Stade de Bertoua creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stade de Bertoua
1.63
Ngaoundéré
1.50

allows per match

Stade de Bertoua
0.89
Ngaoundéré
1.83

finishing

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par
Ngaoundéré+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade de Bertoua ↓

Ngaoundéré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stade de Bertoua or draw
73%
Stade de Bertoua or Ngaoundéré
76%
Draw or Ngaoundéré
50%

Winning margin

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
27%
Ngaoundéré wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
82%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
52%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
25%
Ngaoundéré 1+ goals
70%
Ngaoundéré 2+ goals
34%
Ngaoundéré 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
65%
Ngaoundéré (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade de Bertoua at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Ngaoundéré away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade de Bertoua attack 1.63 + Ngaoundéré defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ngaoundéré attack 1.50 + Stade de Bertoua defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stade de Bertoua scores more
50%
level
24%
Ngaoundéré scores more
27%

Stade de Bertoua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stade de Bertoua host Ngaoundéré

June 7, 2022: Stade de Bertoua take on Ngaoundéré in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.