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Stade d'Abidjan vs Lys Sassandra — Ligue 1 2019

Stade d'Abidjan
Stade d'Abidjan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
5/14/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stade d'Abidjan38%
×Draw30%
Lys Sassandra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade d'Abidjan
1.09
Lys Sassandra
0.95

Stade d'Abidjan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stade d'Abidjan
1.10
Lys Sassandra
0.92

allows per match

Stade d'Abidjan
0.98
Lys Sassandra
1.08

finishing

Stade d'Abidjan+0.00on par
Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade d'Abidjan ↓

Lys Sassandra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stade d'Abidjan or draw
69%
Stade d'Abidjan or Lys Sassandra
70%
Draw or Lys Sassandra
62%

Winning margin

Stade d'Abidjan wins by 2+
16%
Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade d'Abidjan 1+ goals
66%
Stade d'Abidjan 2+ goals
30%
Stade d'Abidjan 3+ goals
10%
Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
61%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
25%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
55%
Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade d'Abidjan at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.98 · 61 matches

Lys Sassandra away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade d'Abidjan attack 1.10 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Lys Sassandra attack 0.92 + Stade d'Abidjan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade d'Abidjan scores more
38%
level
30%
Lys Sassandra scores more
31%

Stade d'Abidjan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Stade d'Abidjan 2–1 Lys Sassandra

Stade d'Abidjan beat Lys Sassandra 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.