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Stade Briochin vs Concarneau — Coupe de France 2018

Stade Briochin
Stade Briochin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Concarneau
Concarneau
11/17/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Fred Aubert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade Briochin24%
×Draw20%
Concarneau57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Briochin
1.46
Concarneau
2.33

Concarneau creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stade Briochin
1.67
Concarneau
2.50

allows per match

Stade Briochin
2.17
Concarneau
1.25

finishing

Stade Briochin+0.00on par
Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Briochin ↓

Concarneau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Stade Briochin or draw
43%
Stade Briochin or Concarneau
80%
Draw or Concarneau
76%

Winning margin

Stade Briochin wins by 2+
10%
Concarneau wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Stade Briochin 1+ goals
77%
Stade Briochin 2+ goals
43%
Stade Briochin 3+ goals
18%
Concarneau 1+ goals
90%
Concarneau 2+ goals
67%
Concarneau 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Stade Briochin (draw refunded)
29%
Concarneau (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Briochin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Concarneau away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Briochin attack 1.67 + Concarneau defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Concarneau attack 2.50 + Stade Briochin defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stade Briochin scores more
24%
level
20%
Concarneau scores more
57%

Concarneau at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Concarneau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Stade Briochin 3–3 Concarneau

Stade Briochin and Concarneau drew 3-3 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Fred Aubert in Saint-Brieuc.