Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Toulouse: Result & Stats

Stade Brestois 29

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Toulouse

R. Faivre 90+1'

Mama Baldé 21'

9/22/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Francis-Le Blé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Stade Brestois 2939%

×Draw25%

Toulouse36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade Brestois 29Expected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.35

Stade Brestois 29

1.42

Toulouse

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.52

creates per match

1.40

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Stade Brestois 29

1.52

Toulouse

1.40

allows per match

Stade Brestois 29

1.30

Toulouse

1.32

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Stade Brestois 29-0.06on par

Toulouse+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Brestois 29 ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stade Brestois 29 or draw

64%

Stade Brestois 29 or Toulouse

75%

Draw or Toulouse

61%

Winning margin

Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+

18%

Toulouse wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals

76%

Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals

41%

Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals

17%

Toulouse 1+ goals

74%

Toulouse 2+ goals

39%

Toulouse 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)

52%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Brestois 29 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 26 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.52 + Toulouse defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Toulouse attack 1.40 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stade Brestois 29 scores more

39%

level

25%

Toulouse scores more

36%

Stade Brestois 29 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Faivre

Stade Brestois 29 · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

Cristian Cásseres Jr.

21'

Mama Baldé↳ Mathias Pereira Lage

33'

Yann GbohoPenalty confirmed

34'

Mathias Pereira Lage

35'

Zakaria AboukhlalMissed penalty

45'

Zakaria AboukhlalPenalty cancelled

63'

M. Zajc← C. Cásseres

64'

J. King← Z. Aboukhlal

64'

A. Dønnum← G. Suazo

66'

L. Ajorque← Mama Baldé

66'

R. Faivre← K. Doumbia

66'

A. Sima← I. Salah

74'

M. Camara← J. Martin

78'

F. Magri← C. Cresswell

82'

J. Amavi← M. Haïdara

86'

J. Canvot← Ü. Akdağ

90+1'

R. Faivre↳ A. Sima

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StadeToulouse

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots11

0.43Expected Goals (xG)2.77

4Corners3

15Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots11

5On Target1

1Off Target9

2Blocked1

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

362Total Passes473

269Accurate Passes377

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-1.32Goals Prevented-1.32

Discipline

15Fouls18

1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29 beat Toulouse 2-0 in Ligue 1 on September 22, 2024.

Goals: Mama Baldé (21'), R. Faivre (90+1').

Toulouse controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Brest.

Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse