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Stabaek vs Sandnes ULF — 1. Division 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
Preview
17:00
Sandnes ULF
Sandnes ULF
10/14/20261. Division1. Division · Round 26Nadderud Stadion
Big match
54%
Stabaek
model favours
54%22%24%

Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stabaek54%
×Draw22%
Sandnes ULF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.99
Sandnes ULF
1.27

Stabaek creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 97 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.96
Sandnes ULF
1.21

allows per match

Stabaek
1.33
Sandnes ULF
2.02

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sandnes ULF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
76%
Stabaek or Sandnes ULF
78%
Draw or Sandnes ULF
46%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
31%
Sandnes ULF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
86%
Stabaek 2+ goals
59%
Stabaek 3+ goals
32%
Sandnes ULF 1+ goals
72%
Sandnes ULF 2+ goals
36%
Sandnes ULF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
69%
Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.02 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Sandnes ULF defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stabaek scores more
54%
level
22%
Sandnes ULF scores more
24%

Stabaek at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 45% of Sandnes ULF’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stabaek
WWLWD
ULF
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek vs Sandnes ULF — Match Preview

Stabaek face Sandnes ULF on October 14, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stabaek host Sandnes ULF at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.