Stabaek 0–1 Sandnes ULF: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sandnes ULF

S. Ringberg 38'

4/25/2022

1. Division · Round 4Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stabaek54%

×Draw22%

Sandnes ULF24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchSandnes ULF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.27

Stabaek

1.99

Sandnes ULF

1.27

Stabaek creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 97 away

1.96

creates per match

1.21

1.33

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Stabaek

1.96

Sandnes ULF

1.21

allows per match

Stabaek

1.33

Sandnes ULF

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Sandnes ULF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

76%

Stabaek or Sandnes ULF

78%

Draw or Sandnes ULF

46%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

31%

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

86%

Stabaek 2+ goals

59%

Stabaek 3+ goals

32%

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

72%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

36%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

69%

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Sandnes ULF away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.02 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Sandnes ULF defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.99

Sandnes ULF attack 1.21 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stabaek scores more

54%

level

22%

Sandnes ULF scores more

24%

Stabaek at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

C. Edwards

38'

S. Ringberg

62'

F. Azemi← S. Wangberg

62'

T. Lange← K. Pedersen

75'

F. Pålerud← S. Ringberg

75'

L. Sødal← C. Landu-Landu

88'

K. Hay← T. Høiland

Stabaek

Sandnes

1

3

15

14

6

▼

Landu-Lan

17

Halgunset

22

Tadesse

25

⚽

▼

Ringberg

21

Hiim

10

▼

Høiland

9

Ekeland

12

Sandberg

4

▼

Wangberg

3

Næss

2

▼

19

15

14

8

11

10

23

Manager: E. Kjønø

62'▲F. Azemi←▼S. Wangberg

62'▲T. Lange←▼K. Pedersen

Stabaek substitutes

7Azemi13Lange1Ulla18Metcalfe20Andresen24Kostadinov25Møller-Hansen

Manager: B. Berntsen

75'▲F. Pålerud←▼S. Ringberg

75'▲L. Sødal←▼C. Landu-Landu

88'▲K. Hay←▼T. Høiland

Sandnes ULF substitutes

2Pålerud5Sødal4Hay16Effiom18Øregaard20Aune27Lønning