Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stabaek vs Lyn — 1. Division 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
Preview
14:00
Lyn
Lyn
8/8/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17Nadderud Stadion
Big match
41%
Stabaek
model favours
41%23%36%

Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Stabaek41%
×Draw23%
Lyn36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.67
Lyn
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.96
Lyn
1.75

allows per match

Stabaek
1.33
Lyn
1.39

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Lyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
64%
Stabaek or Lyn
77%
Draw or Lyn
59%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
21%
Lyn wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
81%
Stabaek 2+ goals
50%
Stabaek 3+ goals
23%
Lyn 1+ goals
79%
Lyn 2+ goals
45%
Lyn 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
54%
Lyn (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Lyn away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.96 + Lyn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lyn attack 1.75 + Stabaek defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stabaek scores more
41%
level
23%
Lyn scores more
36%

Stabaek at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 71% of Lyn’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 71% over 2.5)
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Lyn win just 30% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stabaek
WWLWD
Lyn
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek vs Lyn — Match Preview

Stabaek face Lyn on August 8, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stabaek host Lyn at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.