Lyn 7–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Lyn

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Stabaek

S. Laghzaoui 82'

B. Hylen 77'

A. Berntsen 61'

J. Hanstad 36', 21'

H. Nilsen 6'

A. Olsen 3'

B. Diabaté 81'

8/4/2024

1. Division · Round 17Bislett Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Lyn42%

×Draw23%

Stabaek35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LynExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.56

Lyn

1.73

Stabaek

1.56

Lyn creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

1.61

creates per match

1.50

1.61

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Lyn

1.61

Stabaek

1.50

allows per match

Lyn

1.61

Stabaek

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyn+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lyn or draw

65%

Lyn or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

58%

Winning margin

Lyn wins by 2+

22%

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lyn 1+ goals

82%

Lyn 2+ goals

52%

Lyn 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

79%

Stabaek 2+ goals

46%

Stabaek 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lyn (draw refunded)

55%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn attack 1.61 + Stabaek defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stabaek attack 1.50 + Lyn defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lyn scores more

42%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

35%

Lyn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

6'

21'

24'

25'

26'

36'

46'

O. Breistøl← A. Olsen

56'

B. Diabaté← H. Geelmuyden

56'

K. Kostadinov← M. Christensen

61'

A. Berntsen

64'

T. Myhre← A. Berntsen

71'

S. Laghzaoui← E. Bydal

71'

B. Hylen← J. Hanstad

75'

T. Roberts

76'

K. Pedersen← J. Skjelvik

76'

B. Tobiassen← T. Roberts

77'

B. Hylen

79'

A. Hellum← M. Johansen

81'

B. Diabaté

82'

S. Laghzaoui

90+3'

B. Tobiassen

Lyn

Stabaek

1

Rossbach

5

▼

Skjelvik

4

Næss

3

▼

Øya

6

▼

Christens

14

▼

20

7

27

17

10

▼

Geelmuyde

1

Pedersen

4

Sell

18

⚽

3

6

21

16

⚽

▼

Berntsen

5

▼

Bydal

20

⚽2

▼

Hanstad

9

⚽

▼

Olsen

10

▼

Johansen

Manager: J. Halvorsen

46'▲O. Breistøl←▼A. Olsen

64'▲T. Myhre←▼A. Berntsen

71'▲S. Laghzaoui←▼E. Bydal

71'▲B. Hylen←▼J. Hanstad

79'▲A. Hellum←▼M. Johansen

Lyn substitutes

26Breistøl19Myhre23Laghzaoui77Hylen11Hellum2Skulstad13Lunde22Meinseth25Ingebrigtsen

Manager: B. Bradley

26'▲J. Nysveen←▼J. Øya

56'▲B. Diabaté←▼H. Geelmuyden

56'▲K. Kostadinov←▼M. Christensen

76'▲K. Pedersen←▼J. Skjelvik

76'▲B. Tobiassen←▼T. Roberts

Stabaek substitutes

26Nysveen9Diabaté24Kostadinov2Pedersen28Tobiassen12Gunnerød23Ulla29Ekorness

Lyn 7 – 1 Stabaek

Lyn beat Stabaek 7-1 in 1. Division on August 4, 2024.

Goals: A. Olsen (3'), H. Nilsen (6'), J. Hanstad (21', 36'), A. Berntsen (61'), B. Hylen (77'), B. Diabaté (81'), S. Laghzaoui (82').

The match was played at Bislett Stadion in Oslo.

Lyn vs Stabaek — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Lyn 7 – 1 Stabaek