Stabaek 2–3 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lillestrom

H. Geelmuyden 77'

O. Edvardsen 55'

T. Olsen 71', 66'

I. Mathew 9'

7/21/2021

Eliteserien · Round 1Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stabaek37%

×Draw25%

Lillestrom38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.46

Stabaek

1.44

Lillestrom

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

1.16

creates per match

1.48

1.43

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Stabaek

1.16

Lillestrom

1.48

allows per match

Stabaek

1.43

Lillestrom

1.71

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Stabaek+0.04on par

Lillestrom-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

62%

Stabaek or Lillestrom

75%

Draw or Lillestrom

63%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

42%

Stabaek 3+ goals

18%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

77%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

43%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

49%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.71 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.16 + Lillestrom defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lillestrom attack 1.48 + Stabaek defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stabaek scores more

37%

level

25%

Lillestrom scores more

38%

Lillestrom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Olsen

Lillestrom · F

9.0

Match Events

9'

I. Mathew↳ T. Olsen

18'

U. Mathisen← T. Svendsen

46'

M. Solheim← N. Jenssen

55'

O. Edvardsen↳ T. Lumanza

60'

Jeppe Moe

64'

D. Gustafsson← M. Knudsen

64'

F. Krogstad← E. Edh

66'

T. Olsen↳ D. Gustafsson

67'

H. Shala← K. Kostadinov

67'

H. Geelmuyden← A. Nusa

71'

T. Olsen↳ F. Krogstad

77'

H. Geelmuyden↳ H. Shala

78'

Herolind Shala

79'

S. Skytte← T. Lumanza

82'

Fredrik Krogstad

82'

J. Braut-Brunes← T. Olsen

83'

U. Sabastine← M. Solbakken

90'

Herman Geelmuyden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekLillestrom

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots15

0Corners2

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots15

5On Target8

1Off Target6

2Blocked1

4Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

433Total Passes324

335Accurate Passes249

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0