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Lillestrom vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stabaek
Stabaek
A. Adams 90+2', 86' (pen), 13'
M. Bakenga 21' (pen)
6/4/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 9Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Lillestrom50%
×Draw24%
Stabaek27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrom
1.73
Stabaek
1.20

Lillestrom creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 59 away

creates per match

Lillestrom
1.54
Stabaek
1.10

allows per match

Lillestrom
1.29
Stabaek
1.92

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par
Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw
73%
Lillestrom or Stabaek
76%
Draw or Stabaek
50%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+
27%
Stabaek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals
82%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
52%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
25%
Stabaek 1+ goals
70%
Stabaek 2+ goals
34%
Stabaek 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)
65%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.54 + Stabaek defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stabaek attack 1.10 + Lillestrom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lillestrom scores more
50%
level
24%
Stabaek scores more
27%

Lillestrom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. AdamsLillestromLillestrom · F
9.2

Match Events

13'
A. Adams↳ Y. Ibrahimaj
18'
Mads Christiansen
21'
E. Garnås← V. Skjærvik
21'
M. BakengaPenalty
28'
Andreas Skovgaard
46'
K. Kostadinov← M. Bakenga
67'
T. Svendsen← Y. Ibrahimaj
79'
H. Skogvold← K. Tønnessen
84'
Eskil Smidesang EdhPenalty confirmed
86'
A. AdamsPenalty
89'
M. Seim-Monsen← H. Geelmuyden
90+3'
N. Walstad← A. Andresen
90+2'
A. Adams↳ G. Åsen

Possession

70%Lillestrom

Shots

11Lillestrom

Pass accuracy

55%Lillestrom

Statistics

LillestromStabaek
Overview
70%Possession30%
11Total Shots8
6Corners3
10Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots8
3On Target2
5Off Target4
3Blocked2
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box1
Passing
70%Possession30%
572Total Passes242
493Accurate Passes171
86%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs Stabaek

Lillestrom beat Stabaek 3-1 in Eliteserien on June 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Adams (13', 86' pen, 90+2'), M. Bakenga (21' pen).

Lillestrom controlled possession (70%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.