Stabaek 2–2 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kristiansund BK

J. Øveraas 65'

O. Edvardsen 55'

C. Psyché 84'

F. Pemi 80'

12/13/2020

Eliteserien · Round 29Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stabaek42%

×Draw25%

Kristiansund BK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.35

Stabaek

1.54

Kristiansund BK

1.35

Stabaek creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

1.09

creates per match

1.05

1.65

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Stabaek

1.09

Kristiansund BK

1.05

allows per match

Stabaek

1.65

Kristiansund BK

2.00

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Stabaek-0.09on par

Kristiansund BK-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

67%

Stabaek or Kristiansund BK

75%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

58%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

21%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

79%

Stabaek 2+ goals

45%

Stabaek 3+ goals

20%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

74%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

39%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

56%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 6 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.09 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kristiansund BK attack 1.05 + Stabaek defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stabaek scores more

42%

level

25%

Kristiansund BK scores more

33%

Stabaek at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Psyché

Kristiansund BK · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

Sondre Sorlie

55'

O. Edvardsen↳ K. Hansen

65'

J. Øveraas↳ K. Kostadinov

67'

Bent Sormo

71'

P. Ulvestad← A. Hopmark

71'

71'

71'

75'

78'

79'

D. Maatsen← M. Antonsson

80'

F. Pemi↳ C. Aasbak

84'

C. Psyché↳ A. Pellegrino

88'

Gustav Valsvik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StabaekKristiansund

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots14

6Corners4

8Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target7

8Off Target5

3Blocked2

9Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

309Total Passes327

205Accurate Passes228

66%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0