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Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

Stabaek
Stabaek
CANC
00:00
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
8/21/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 20Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Stabaek31%
×Draw24%
Bodo/Glimt44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.33
Bodo/Glimt
1.63

Bodo/Glimt creates 23% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 118 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.29
Bodo/Glimt
2.03

allows per match

Stabaek
1.23
Bodo/Glimt
1.36

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
56%
Stabaek or Bodo/Glimt
76%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
69%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
14%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
74%
Stabaek 2+ goals
38%
Stabaek 3+ goals
15%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
80%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
48%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
41%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 66 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.36 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.29 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.03 + Stabaek defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stabaek scores more
31%
level
24%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
44%

Bodo/Glimt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt — Match Preview

Stabaek face Bodo/Glimt on August 21, 2021 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stabaek host Bodo/Glimt at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.