Stabaek 3–0 Bærum: Result & Stats

Stabaek

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bærum

B. Tobiassen 86'

O. Oppedal 70'

O. Boesen 57'

1/23/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stabaek59%

×Draw22%

Bærum19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StabaekExpected goals in this matchBærum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.96

Stabaek

1.88

Bærum

0.96

Stabaek creates 96% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

2.09

creates per match

1.00

0.91

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Stabaek

2.09

Bærum

1.00

allows per match

Stabaek

0.91

Bærum

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par

Bærum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

Bærum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw

81%

Stabaek or Bærum

78%

Draw or Bærum

41%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+

34%

Bærum wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals

85%

Stabaek 2+ goals

56%

Stabaek 3+ goals

29%

Bærum 1+ goals

62%

Bærum 2+ goals

25%

Bærum 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)

76%

Bærum (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Bærum away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 2.09 + Bærum defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bærum attack 1.00 + Stabaek defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stabaek scores more

59%

level

22%

Bærum scores more

19%

Stabaek at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

O. Boesen

70'

O. Oppedal

86'

B. Tobiassen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff