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Stabæk W vs LSK Kvinner W — Toppserien 2021

Stabæk W
Stabæk W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
9/14/2024ToppserienToppserien · Round 20Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Stabæk W33%
×Draw25%
LSK Kvinner W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk W
1.35
LSK Kvinner W
1.57

LSK Kvinner W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 65 away

creates per match

Stabæk W
1.36
LSK Kvinner W
1.65

allows per match

Stabæk W
1.49
LSK Kvinner W
1.34

finishing

Stabæk W+0.00on par
LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stabæk W or draw
57%
Stabæk W or LSK Kvinner W
75%
Draw or LSK Kvinner W
67%

Winning margin

Stabæk W wins by 2+
15%
LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stabæk W 1+ goals
74%
Stabæk W 2+ goals
39%
Stabæk W 3+ goals
15%
LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
79%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
46%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stabæk W (draw refunded)
44%
LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk W attack 1.36 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.65 + Stabæk W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stabæk W scores more
33%
level
25%
LSK Kvinner W scores more
43%

LSK Kvinner W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Stabæk W 1–3 LSK Kvinner W

LSK Kvinner W beat Stabæk W 3-1 in Toppserien on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bærum.