Stabæk U19 vs KFUM U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Stabæk U1981%
KFUM U197%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stabæk U19 creates 248% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over80
- Under20
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stabæk U19 ↓
Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stabæk U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches
KFUM U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stabæk U19 attack 3.25 + KFUM U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.38
KFUM U19 attack 1.00 + Stabæk U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 81%?"
Stabæk U19 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 81% does not mean "Stabæk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Lillestrøm U19Stabæk U19
HamKam U19
Brann U19
Lyn U19
Rosenborg U19
Sandefjord U19
Tromsø U19
Strømsgodset U19
Åsane U19
Molde U19
Viking U19
Vålerenga U19
Odd U19
Sarpsborg 08 U19
Haugesund U19
Aalesunds U19
Fredrikstad FK U19KFUM U19
Kongsvinger IL U19
Kristiansund U19
Moss U19
Sogndal U19
Sandnes Ulf U19
Bodø / Glimt U19
Start U19
Bryne U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stabæk U19 host KFUM U19 on Saturday, 20 March 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021/2022 season.
Stabæk U19 face KFUM U19 (Nasjonal U19 Champions League)
Nasjonal U19 Champions League returns with Stabæk U19 hosting KFUM U19. Match starts March 20, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Stabæk U19 host KFUM U19 at Nadderud Kunstgress.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.