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Stabæk II vs Melbo IL — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Stabæk II
Stabæk II
FT
0 – 1
Melbo IL
Melbo IL
9/19/20213. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 7Nadderud Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stabæk II46%
×Draw23%
Melbo IL31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk II
1.86
Melbo IL
1.50

Stabæk II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stabæk II
2.05
Melbo IL
1.00

allows per match

Stabæk II
2.00
Melbo IL
1.67

finishing

Stabæk II+0.00on par
Melbo IL+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk II ↓

Melbo IL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stabæk II or draw
69%
Stabæk II or Melbo IL
77%
Draw or Melbo IL
54%

Winning margin

Stabæk II wins by 2+
25%
Melbo IL wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stabæk II 1+ goals
84%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
55%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
28%
Melbo IL 1+ goals
78%
Melbo IL 2+ goals
44%
Melbo IL 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stabæk II (draw refunded)
60%
Melbo IL (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk II at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Melbo IL away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk II attack 2.05 + Melbo IL defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Melbo IL attack 1.00 + Stabæk II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stabæk II scores more
46%
level
23%
Melbo IL scores more
31%

Stabæk II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Stabæk II 0–1 Melbo IL

Melbo IL beat Stabæk II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Nadderud Kunstgress in Bekkestua.