Stabæk II 3–1 Grorud II: Result & Stats

Stabæk II

FT

3 – 1

Grorud II

5/30/2023

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 7Nadderud Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stabæk II48%

×Draw20%

Grorud II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stabæk IIExpected goals in this matchGrorud II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.90

Stabæk II

2.34

Grorud II

1.90

Stabæk II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

2.23

creates per match

1.88

1.92

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Stabæk II

2.23

Grorud II

1.88

allows per match

Stabæk II

1.92

Grorud II

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabæk II+0.00on par

Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk II ↓

Grorud II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Stabæk II or draw

68%

Stabæk II or Grorud II

80%

Draw or Grorud II

52%

Winning margin

Stabæk II wins by 2+

29%

Grorud II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stabæk II 1+ goals

90%

Stabæk II 2+ goals

67%

Stabæk II 3+ goals

41%

Grorud II 1+ goals

85%

Grorud II 2+ goals

56%

Grorud II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Stabæk II (draw refunded)

60%

Grorud II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk II attack 2.23 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.34

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Stabæk II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stabæk II scores more

48%

level

20%

Grorud II scores more

32%

Stabæk II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff