Stabæk II 2–1 Fredrikstad II: Result & Stats

Stabæk II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fredrikstad II

7/21/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 12Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stabæk II52%

×Draw20%

Fredrikstad II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stabæk IIExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.66

Stabæk II

2.29

Fredrikstad II

1.66

Stabæk II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

2.05

creates per match

1.31

2.00

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Stabæk II

2.05

Fredrikstad II

1.31

allows per match

Stabæk II

2.00

Fredrikstad II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabæk II+0.00on par

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk II ↓

Fredrikstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stabæk II or draw

72%

Stabæk II or Fredrikstad II

80%

Draw or Fredrikstad II

48%

Winning margin

Stabæk II wins by 2+

31%

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stabæk II 1+ goals

90%

Stabæk II 2+ goals

66%

Stabæk II 3+ goals

40%

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

81%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

49%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stabæk II (draw refunded)

65%

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk II at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk II attack 2.05 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.29

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Stabæk II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stabæk II scores more

52%

level

20%

Fredrikstad II scores more

28%

Stabæk II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff