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Staal Jørpeland vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
CANC
11:00
Express
Express
10/31/20203. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 13Jørpeland stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Staal Jørpeland41%
×Draw20%
Express40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staal Jørpeland
2.29
Express
2.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Staal Jørpeland
2.25
Express
2.17

allows per match

Staal Jørpeland
2.35
Express
2.33

finishing

Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staal Jørpeland ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Staal Jørpeland or draw
60%
Staal Jørpeland or Express
80%
Draw or Express
59%

Winning margin

Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
23%
Express wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
90%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
66%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
40%
Express 1+ goals
89%
Express 2+ goals
66%
Express 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
51%
Express (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staal Jørpeland at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

Express away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.25 + Express defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Express attack 2.17 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Staal Jørpeland scores more
41%
level
20%
Express scores more
40%

Staal Jørpeland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Staal Jørpeland host Express

October 31, 2020: Staal Jørpeland take on Express in 3. Division - Girone 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Staal Jørpeland host Express at Jørpeland stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.